PAPERS | CATEGORICAL LISTING

DECISIONS UNDER UNCERTAINTY & RISK

Barkley-Levenson, E.E. & Fox, C.R. (2016). The surprising relationship between indecisiveness and impulsivity. Personality & Individual Differences, 90, 1-6.

de Palma, A., Abdellaoui, M., Attanasi, G., Ben-Akiva, M., Fehr-Duda, H., Erev, I., Fok, D., Fox, C.R., Hertwig, R., Picard, N., Wakker, P.P., Walker, J.L. & Weber, M. (2014). Beware of black swans: Taking stock of the description-experience gap in decision under uncertainty. Marketing Letters, 25, 269-280.

Hadar, L., Sood, S., and Fox, C.R. (2013). Subjective knowledge in consumer financial decision making. Journal of Marketing Research, 50, 303-316.

Fernbach, P.M., Rogers, T., Fox, C.R., and Sloman, S.A. (2013). Political extremism is supported by an illusion of understanding. Psychological Science, 24, 939-946.

Fox, C.R., and Tannenbaum, D.  (2011).  The elusive search for stable risk preferences.  Frontiers in Psychology, 2:298.  doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2011.00298

Schonberg, T., Fox, C.R., and Poldrack, R.A. (2011). Mind the gap: Bridging economic and naturalistic risk-taking with cognitive neuroscience.  Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 15, 11-19.

Hadar, L. and Fox, C.R. (2009). Information asymmetries in decisions from description versus decisions from experience.  Judgment and Decision Making, 4, 317-325.

Morris, M.W., Carranza, E., and Fox, C.R. (2008). Mistaken identity: Activating conservative political identities induces “conservative” financial decisions.  Psychological Science, 19, 1154-1160.

Bearden, J.N, Wallsten, T.S., and Fox, C.R. (2007). Contrasting stochastic and support theory explanations for subadditivity.  Journal of Mathematical Psychology, 51, 229-241.

Fox, C.R. and Hadar, L. (2006). Decisions from experience = sampling error + prospect theory: Reconsidering Hertwig, Barron, Weber & Erev (2004).  Judgment and Decision Making, 1, 159-161.

See, K.E., Fox, C.R., and Rottenstreich, Y. (2006). Between ignorance and truth: Partition dependence and learning in judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 32, 1385- 1402.

Fox, C.R. (2006). The availability heuristic in the classroom: How soliciting more criticism can boost your course ratings.  Judgment and Decision Making, 1, 86-90.

Fox, C.R. and Clemen, R.T. (2005). Subjective probability assessment in decision analysis: Partition dependence and bias toward the ignorance prior. Management Science, 51, 1417-1432. (Named Best Paper in Decision Analysis 2005, INFORMS).

Trepel, C., Fox, C.R., and Poldrack, R.A. (2005). Prospect theory on the brain? Toward a cognitive neuroscience of decision under risk.   Cognitive Brain Research, 23, 34-50.

Fox, C.R. and Levav, J. (2004). Partition-edit-count: Naïve extensional reasoning in conditional probability judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 133, 626-642.

Sloman, S., Rottenstreich, Y., Wisniewski, E., Hadjichristidis, C., and Fox, C.R. (2004). Typical versus atypical unpacking and superadditive probability judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory & Cognition, 30, 573-582.

Fox, C.R., and Rottenstreich, Y. (2003). Partition priming in judgment under uncertainty. Psychological Science, 14, 195-200.

Fox, C.R. and Birke, R. (2002). Forecasting trial outcomes: Lawyers assign higher probabilities to scenarios that are described in greater detail.  Law and Human Behavior, 26, 159-173.

Fox, C.R., and Weber, M. (2002). Ambiguity aversion, comparative ignorance, and decision context. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 88, 476-498.

Fox, C.R., and Levav, J. (2000). Familiarity bias and belief reversal in relative likelihood judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 82, 268-292.

Fox, C.R. (1999). Strength of evidence, judged probability, and choice under uncertainty. Cognitive Psychology, 38, 167-189.

Moore, D.A., Kurtzberg, T., Fox , C.R. and Bazerman, M. (1999). Positive illusions and forecasting errors in mutual fund investment decisions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2, 95-114.

Fox, C.R., and Tversky, A. (1998).  A Belief-based account of decision under uncertainty.  Management Science, 44, 879-895.

Reprinted in D. Kahneman & A. Tversky, Eds. (2000). Choices, Values, and Frames. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Reprinted in E.Shafir (Ed). (2004).  Preference, Belief, and Similarity: Selected Writings of Amos Tversky. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Fox, C.R., and Irwin, J.R. (1998). The role of context in the communication of uncertain beliefs. Basic and Applied Social Psychology, 20, 57-70.

Fox, C.R., B.A. Rogers, and Tversky, A. (1996). Options traders exhibit subadditive decision weights. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 13, 5-17.

Fox, C.R., and Tversky, A. (1995). Ambiguity aversion and comparative ignorance. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 585-603.

Reprinted in D. Kahneman & A. Tversky, Eds. (2000). Choices, Values, and Frames. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Reprinted in E.Shafir (Ed). (2004).  Preference, Belief, and Similarity: Selected Writings of Amos Tversky. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Tversky, A., and Fox, C.R. (1995). Weighing risk and uncertainty.  Psychological Review, 102, 269-283.

Reprinted in D. Kahneman & A. Tversky, Eds. (2000). Choices, Values, and Frames. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Reprinted in E.Shafir (Ed). (2004).  Preference, Belief, and Similarity: Selected Writings of Amos Tversky. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Fox, C.R., and Kahneman, D. (1992). Correlations, causes, and heuristics in surveys of life satisfaction. Social Indicators Research, 28, 221-234.

Fox, C.R., Erner, C. & Walters, D. (2015). Decision under risk: From the field to the lab and back. Chapter in G. Keren & G. Wu (Eds.).  Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making. New York: Wiley.

Fox, C.R., and Poldrack, R.A. (2014).  Prospect theory and the brain. Chapter in Glimcher, P., Fehr, E. (Eds). Handbook of Neuroeconomics (2nd Edition, revised & updated)New York: Elsevier.

Fox, C.R., and Poldrack, R.A. (2008). Prospect theory and the brain. Chapter in Glimcher, P., Camerer, C., Fehr, E. & Poldrack, R. (Eds). Handbook of Neuroeconomics.  New York: Elsevier.

Fox, C.R. and See, K.E. (2003). Belief and preference in decision under uncertainty. Chapter in D. Hardman and L. Macchi (Eds.), Thinking: Current Perspectives on Reasoning, Judgment, and Decision Making (Hoboken, NJ: Wiley).

Fox, C.R., and Levav, J. The Construction of absolute versus relative belief. Working Paper, UCLA Anderson School, Revision Requested, Psychological Review.

Hofree, G., Erner, C. Fox, C.R., Kutson, B. & Winkielman, P. The influence of incidental affect on risky choice. Working Paper, University of California, San Diego.

Hadar, L. and Fox, C.R. Data, belief, and preferences in decision under uncertainty. Working paper, Interdisciplinary Center, Herziliya.

Langer, T., and Fox, C.R. Bias in allocation among risky and uncertain prospects: Partition-dependence, unit- dependence, and procedure-dependence.  Working paper, University of Muenster.

Fox, C.R., Long, A, & Hadar, L., Erner, C.  Unpacking decision weights in decision from description and experience. Manuscript in preparation, UCLA Anderson School.

 

VARIANTS OF UNCERTAINTY

Walters, D.J., Fernbach, P.M., Fox, C.R. & Sloman, S.A. (in press). Known unknowns: A critical determinant of confidence and calibration. Management Science, forthcoming.

Ülkümen, G., Fox, C.R., & Malle, B.F. (in press). On the dual nature of uncertainty: Cues from natural language. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, forthcoming.

Fox & Ülkümen (in press). Comment on Løhre & Teigen, “There is a 60% probability, but I am 70% certain: Communicative consequences of external and internal expressions of uncertainty.” Thinking and Reasoning, forthcoming.

Tannenbaum, D., Fox, C.R., & Ülkümen, G. (2016). Judgment extremity and accuracy under epistemic versus aleatory uncertainty. Management Science, forthcoming.

Fox, C.R. and Ülkümen, G. (2011). Distinguishing Two Dimensions of Uncertainty. Chapter 1 in Brun, W., Keren, G., Kirkebøen, G. & Montgomery, H. (Eds.). Perspectives on Thinking, Judging, and Decision Making. Oslo: Universitetsforlaget.

Walters, D.J., Ülkümen, G., Erner, C., Tannenbaum, D. & Fox, C.R. Investment under epistemic versus aleatory uncertainty. Working Paper, UCLA Anderson School.

Fox, C.R., Tannenabaum, D., Ülkümen, G., Walters, D. & Erner, C. The Epistemic-Aleatory Rating Scale (EARS) in judgment and choice.  Manuscript in preparation, UCLA Anderson School.

 

PARTITION DEPENDENCE

Tannenbaum, D., Doctor, J.N., Persell, S.D., Friedberg, M.W., Meeker, D., Friesema, B.A., Goldstein, N.J., Linder, J.A. & Fox, C.R. (2015). Nudging physician decisions by partitioning the order set: Results of a vignette-based study. Journal of General Internal Medicine, 30, 298-304. doi:10.1007/s11606-014-3051-2

Sonnemann, U., Camerer, C.F., Fox, C.R., and Langer, T. (2013). How psychological framing affects economic market prices in the lab and field. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110, 11779-11784. (Finalist for 2014 Exeter Prize for best paper published previous year in Experimental/Behavioral Economics and Decision Theory).

Bardolet, D., Fox, C.R. and Lovallo, D. (2011). Corporate capital allocation: A behavioral perspective. Strategic Management Journal, 32, 1465-1483.

See, K.E., Fox, C.R., and Rottenstreich, Y. (2006). Between ignorance and truth: Partition dependence and learning in judgment under uncertainty. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Learning, Memory and Cognition, 32, 1385- 1402.

Fox, C.R., Ratner, R.K., and Lieb, D. (2005). How subjective grouping of options influences choice and allocation: Diversification bias and the phenomenon of partition dependence. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 134, 538-551.

Fox, C.R. and Clemen, R.T. (2005). Subjective probability assessment in decision analysis: Partition dependence and bias toward the ignorance prior. Management Science, 51, 1417-1432. (Named Best Paper in Decision Analysis 2005, INFORMS).

Fox, C.R. and Levav, J. (2004). Partition-edit-count: Naïve extensional reasoning in conditional probability judgment. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 133, 626-642.

Fox, C.R., and Rottenstreich, Y. (2003). Partition priming in judgment under uncertainty. Psychological Science, 14, 195-200.

Fox, C.R., Bardolet, D., and Lieb, D. (2005). Partition dependence in decision analysis, managerial decision making, and consumer choice. Chapter in R. Zwick, R. & A. Rapoport (Eds.), Experimental Business Research. Volume III (Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer).

Langer, T., and Fox, C.R. Bias in allocation among risky and uncertain prospects: Partition-dependence, unit- dependence, and procedure-dependence.  Working paper, University of Muenster.

 

CHOICE ARCHITECTURE

Sacks, G.D., Dawes, A.J., Ettner, S.L., Brook, R.H., Fox, C.R., Maggard-Gibbons, M., Ko, C.Y., & Russell, M.M. (in press). Surgeon perception of risk and benefit in the decision to operate. Annals of Surgery, forthcoming.

Sacks, G.D., Dawes, A.J., Ettner, S.L., Brook, R.H., Fox, C.R., Russell, M.M., Ko, C.Y., & Maggard-Gibbons, M. (in press). Impact of a risk calculator on risk perception and surgical decision-making: A randomized trial. Annals of Surgery, forthcoming.

Meeker, D., Linder, J.A., Fox, C.R., Friedberg, M.W., Persell, S.D., Goldstein, N.J., Knight, T.K., Hay, J.W. & Doctor, J.N. (2016). Effect of behavioral interventions on inappropriate antibiotic prescribing among primary care practices: A randomized clinical trial. Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), 315, 562-570.

Fox, C.R. & Sitkin, S. (2015). Bridging the divide between behavioral science and policy. Behavioral Science & Policy, 1, 1-12.

Linder, J.A., Doctor, J.N., Friedberg, M.W., Reyes, N.H., Birks, C., Meeker, D. & Fox, C.R. (2014). Time of day and the decision to prescribe antibiotics. JAMA Internal Medicine. doi:10.1001/jamainternmed.2014.52

Meeker, D., Knight, T.K., Friedberg, M.W., Linder, J.A., Goldstein, N.J., Fox, C.R., Rothfeld, A., Dias, G. and Doctor, J.N. (2014). Nudging guideline-concordant antibiotic prescribing: A randomized trial. JAMA Internal Medicine, 174, 425-431.

Persell, S.D., Friedberg, M.W., Meeker, D., Linder, J.A., Fox, C.R., Goldstein, N.J., Shah, P.D., Knight, T.K. and Doctor, J.N. (2013). Use of behavioral economics and social psychology to improve treatment of acute respiratory infections (BEARI): rationale and design of a cluster randomized control trial [1RC4AG039115-01] – study protocol and baseline practice and provider characteristics. BMC Infectious Diseases, 13:290, doi:10.1186/1471- 2334-13-2900

Mogler, B.K., Shu, S.B., Fox, C.R., Goldstein, N.J., Victor, R.G., Escarce, Jose J. and Shapiro, M.F. (2013). Can new tools from behavioral economics and social psychology help control chronic disease? Journal of General Internal Medicine, 28. 711-718.

Johnson, E.J., Shu, S., Dellaert, B.G.C., Fox, C., Goldstein, D.G., Hauble, G., Larrick, R.P., Payne, J., Peters, E., Schkade, D., Wansink, B., and Weber, E.U. (2012). Beyond Nudges: Tools of a Choice Architecture. Marketing Letters, 23, 487-504.

Rogers, T., Fox, C.R., and Gerber, A.S. (2013).  Rethinking why people vote: Voting as dynamic social expression. Chapter in Shafir, E. (Ed.) The Behavioral Foundations of Policy.  New York: Russell Sage.

Tannenbaum, D., Fox, C.R. & Rogers, T. (in press). On the misplaced politics of behavioral policy interventions. Working paper, University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

Hadar, L., Tannenbaum, D. & Fox, C.R. Subjective knowledge attenuates default effects. Working paper, Interdisciplinary Center, Herzliya.

Sacks, G., Dawes, A.J., Ettner, S.L., Brook, R.H., Maggard-Gibbons, M., Ko, C.Y., & Russell, M.M. & Fox, C.R. The influence of patient preference on surgeons’ treatment recommendations. Working Paper, UCLA Geffen School of Medicine.

 

FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING

Sonnemann, U., Camerer, C.F., Fox, C.R., and Langer, T. (2013). How psychological framing affects economic market prices in the lab and field. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 110, 11779-11784. (Finalist for 2014 Exeter Prize for best paper published previous year in Experimental/Behavioral Economics and Decision Theory).

Hadar, L., Sood, S., and Fox, C.R. (2013). Subjective knowledge in consumer financial decision making. Journal of Marketing Research, 50, 303-316.

Bardolet, D., Fox, C.R. and Lovallo, D. (2011). Corporate capital allocation: A behavioral perspective. Strategic Management Journal, 32, 1465-1483.

Fox, C.R., and Weber, M. (2002). Ambiguity aversion, comparative ignorance, and decision context. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 88, 476-498.

Moore, D.A., Kurtzberg, T., Fox , C.R. and Bazerman, M. (1999). Positive illusions and forecasting errors in mutual fund investment decisions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2, 95-114.

Fox, C.R., B.A. Rogers, and Tversky, A. (1996). Options traders exhibit subadditive decision weights. Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 13, 5-17.

Fox, C.R., and Tversky, A. (1995). Ambiguity aversion and comparative ignorance. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 110, 585-603.

Reprinted in D. Kahneman & A. Tversky, Eds. (2000). Choices, Values, and Frames. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.

Reprinted in E.Shafir (Ed). (2004).  Preference, Belief, and Similarity: Selected Writings of Amos Tversky. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.

Walters, D.J., Erner, C., Fox, C.R., Trepel, C., Scholton, M. & Read, D. Debt aversion: Anomalous in theory, advantageous in practice. Manuscript submitted for publication, Journal of Marketing Research.

Erner, C., Fox, C.R., Chalekian, J.S., De La Rosa, G. & Trepel, C. Individual differences in objective and subjective consumer financial well-being. Manuscript submitted for publication, Journal of Marketing Behavior.

Walters, D.J., Ülkümen, G., Erner, C., Tannenbaum, D. & Fox, C.R. Investment under epistemic versus aleatory uncertainty. Working Paper, UCLA Anderson School.

Scholton, M., Walters, D.J., Erner, C., Read, D., & Fox, C.R. A diagnosis of attitude toward debt. Working Paper, Univrersidade Euopeia.

Langer, T., and Fox, C.R. Bias in allocation among risky and uncertain prospects: Partition-dependence, unit- dependence, and procedure-dependence.  Working paper, University of Muenster.

Bardolet, D., Lovallo, D., Rumelt, R., and Fox, C.R. The relative size effect on internal capital markets. Working paper, Bocconi University.

 

STRATEGY, NEGOTIATION, & ORGANIZATIONAL BEHAVIOR

Staats, B.R., Milkman, K.L., and Fox, C.R. (2012). The team scaling fallacy: Underestimating the declining efficiency of larger teams.  Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 118, 132-142.

Bardolet, D., Fox, C.R. and Lovallo, D. (2011). Corporate capital allocation: A behavioral perspective. Strategic Management Journal, 32, 1465-1483.

Powell, T.C., Lovallo, D., and Fox, C.R. (2011). Behavioral strategy. Strategic Management Journal, 32, 1369-1386.

Birke, R., and Fox, C.R. (1999). Psychological principles in negotiating civil settlements. Harvard Negotiation Law Review, 4, 1-57. (Selected as 1999 Professional Article of the Year, Center for Public Resources Institute for Dispute Resolution).

Fox, C.R., Bardolet, D., and Lieb, D. (2005). Partition dependence in decision analysis, managerial decision making, and consumer choice. Chapter in R. Zwick, R. & A. Rapoport (Eds.), Experimental Business Research. Volume III (Dordrecht, The Netherlands: Kluwer).

Thompson, L.L., and Fox, C.R. (2001).  Negotiation within and between organizations: Levels of analysis.  Chapter in M.E. Turner (Ed.), Groups at Work: Advances in Theory and Research (Hillsdale, NJ: Erlbaum).

Bardolet, D., Lovallo, D., Rumelt, R., and Fox, C.R. The relative size effect on internal capital markets. Working paper, Bocconi University.

See, K.E., C. Heath, and Fox, C.R. Motivating individual performance with challenging goals: Is it better to stretch a little or a lot?  Working Paper, New York University.

 

DECISION NEUROSCIENCE

Schonberg, T., Fox, C.R., Mumford, J.A., Congdon, E., Trepel, C. and Poldrack, R.A. (2012). Decreasing ventromedial prefrontal cortex activity during sequential risk-taking: An fMRI investigation of the Balloon Analogue Risk Task. Frontiers in Neuroscience, 6:80, doi: 10.3389/fnins.2012.00080.

Schonberg, T., Fox, C.R., and Poldrack, R.A. (2011). Mind the gap: Bridging economic and naturalistic risk-taking with cognitive neuroscience.  Trends in Cognitive Sciences, 15, 11-19.

Tom, S., Fox, C.R., Trepel, C. and Poldrack, R.A. (2007). The neural basis of loss aversion in decision making under risk.  Science, 315, 515-518.

Trepel, C., Fox, C.R., and Poldrack, R.A. (2005). Prospect theory on the brain? Toward a cognitive neuroscience of decision under risk.   Cognitive Brain Research, 23, 34-50.

Fox, C.R., and Poldrack, R.A. (2014).  Prospect theory and the brain. Chapter in Glimcher, P., Fehr, E. (Eds). Handbook of Neuroeconomics (2nd Edition, revised & updated)New York: Elsevier.

Fox, C.R., and Poldrack, R.A. (2008). Prospect theory and the brain. Chapter in Glimcher, P., Camerer, C., Fehr, E. & Poldrack, R. (Eds). Handbook of Neuroeconomics.  New York: Elsevier.